Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sigma Olomouc face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc host Zlin at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 2D 3L at Andruv stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–5 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Zlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Zlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.06 xG and Zlin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / defence 1.008 | Zlin attack 0.931 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 41 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 59% | Draw 22% | Zlin 19%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Zlin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 59% | Draw 22% | Zlin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.06 / Zlin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / def 1.008 | Zlin attack 0.931 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Zlin xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 59% chance of winning, Zlin a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Record (8 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 2 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.49
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.17
1.11
Zlin xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
2%
40.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.11 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 9D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.87 PPG from 45 outings (10W 9D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 9D 26L in their last 45 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zlin away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.90 PPG; Zlin away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 38%, Zlin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 48% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 48% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zlin tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zlin in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.