Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 4W 6D 0L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.60 PPG lead over Mlada Boleslav (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Mlada Boleslav 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.85 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.245 / defence 1.143 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.149 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 36 Teplice games / 35 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 22% | Mlada Boleslav 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Mlada Boleslav 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Mlada Boleslav lead the H2H ledger, but Teplice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 22% | Mlada Boleslav 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Teplice 1.85 / Mlada Boleslav 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.245 / def 1.143 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.149 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Teplice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Mlada Boleslav xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 40% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 5W.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.15x) against Teplice's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
40%
2.48
22%
4.58
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.63
1.79
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Teplice and 1.79 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 13D 14L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (12W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Teplice against 1.27 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 62%.
Defensively: Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 15D 13L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.30 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Teplice or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 45%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Teplice) and 60% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Teplice's recent matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Teplice's recent games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.