Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Cangzhou Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Tianjin Teda are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, Tianjin Teda 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Tianjin Teda 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / defence 1.000 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.266. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 48 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 44%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Tianjin Teda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 / Tianjin Teda 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / def 1.000 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 24% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.87) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.96x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
24%
4.20
33%
3.07
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.06
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.22 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 16D 18L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 16D 12L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.58 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 14W 16D 18L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 16D 12L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.00 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Tianjin Teda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 35% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 35%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 35% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 0.69, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 44%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Tianjin Teda 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.