Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Jonoon have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 home games (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Shenzhen Ruby FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 53% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.787 / defence 1.014 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.710 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.77. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.588 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output up. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 15 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 48.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 | Draw 3.85 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 7 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 43% (last 7 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.787 / def 1.014 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.710 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Qingdao Jonoon 5 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 57% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.79x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.71x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 15 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.85
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.67
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
33.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 0.90 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 4D 9L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 0.73 PPG from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.73 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across their last 6 home games, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 0.17 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.93 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 60%.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 2D 10L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 0.83 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 July 2023: Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 33%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 83% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 50% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 5-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.59, drawn from 15/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.