Qingdao Huanghai 2-5 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Zall at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Huanghai host Wuhan Zall at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Super League, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Huanghai — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Huanghai's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 5L across 7 games at Suzhou City Sports Centre this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at Suzhou City Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Zall have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wuhan Zall — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Huanghai in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 20% versus Wuhan Zall 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Huanghai 47% | Wuhan Zall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.04 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.765 / defence 1.501 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.715 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Qingdao Huanghai games / 14 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Zall 43%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Wuhan Zall 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Zall as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Huanghai 29% | Wuhan Zall 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Zall 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.04 / Wuhan Zall 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.765 / def 1.501 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.715 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Wuhan Zall xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall?
Qingdao Huanghai 2 - 5 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 26% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating (0.77) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
26%
3.85
32%
3.17
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.42
1.38
Wuhan Zall xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.38 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Qingdao Huanghai have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 2W 1D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 2W 8D 5L from 15 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wuhan Zall are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Wuhan Zall in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 12L in their last 15 games (0.47 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 2W 8D 5L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Qingdao Huanghai's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 0.86 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
1
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 28 December 2021, when Wuhan Zall 1-1 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Wuhan Zall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Huanghai 29%, Wuhan Zall 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Qingdao Huanghai) and 43% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 57% of games; Wuhan Zall in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Huanghai play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 57% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent games and 43% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Qingdao Huanghai have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Zall run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-5 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.04 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.38 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Qingdao Huanghai beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Zall outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.77 / defence 1.50 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 32% | Wuhan Zall 43%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 47%, Wuhan Zall 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Zall arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.