Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Shanghai Shenhua versus Qingdao Huanghai in Super League, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 1L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Huanghai (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Huanghai's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Shanghai Shenhua's favour (1.40 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Qingdao Huanghai half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 64% versus Qingdao Huanghai 21%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Qingdao Huanghai 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.881 / defence 1.063 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.657 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shanghai Shenhua games / 14 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 48% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 21%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Qingdao Huanghai 4.76. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 57% | Qingdao Huanghai 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 48% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.881 / def 1.063 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.657 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Qingdao Huanghai xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 48% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Huanghai's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Qingdao Huanghai's attack (0.66x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.21
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.34
0.90
Qingdao Huanghai xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
19.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.90 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Huanghai, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 11L across 14 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Huanghai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Huanghai's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.43 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 21%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.71 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 25 December 2021, when Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 57%, Qingdao Huanghai 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 29% (Qingdao Huanghai).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua have failed to score in 29% of games; Qingdao Huanghai in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 14% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 29% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Huanghai 3-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Huanghai landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.66 / defence 1.42, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 48% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 21%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Qingdao Huanghai 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.