Tianjin Teda 1-2 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Qingdao Huanghai in Super League (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Tianjin Teda's home record over their last 8 home games: 2W 1D 5L (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Huanghai's record over their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Qingdao Huanghai's away record over their last 8 away games: 0W 1D 7L (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Tianjin Teda's favour (0.60 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Qingdao Huanghai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 69% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 62% versus Qingdao Huanghai 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Huanghai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / defence 1.431 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.665 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 1.431 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output up. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 14 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 14.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Huanghai 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.29 | Draw 3.46 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 8 home games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 8 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 88% (last 8 home games) | Qingdao Huanghai 12% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Huanghai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.58 / Qingdao Huanghai 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / def 1.431 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.665 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Qingdao Huanghai xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Huanghai's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Qingdao Huanghai's attack (0.67x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 14 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.46
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.80
1.22
Qingdao Huanghai xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.22 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Qingdao Huanghai, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 13L across 16 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.69 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 0.44 for Qingdao Huanghai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 2W 1D 5L from their last 8 home games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Huanghai's away record stands at 0W 1D 7L across their last 8 away games, a 0.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.50 scored and 2.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 25%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Qingdao Huanghai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 13L in their last 16 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.88 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 31 December 2021, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 December 2021: Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 88%, Qingdao Huanghai 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Tianjin Teda) and 38% (Qingdao Huanghai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 88% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 12% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 38% of Qingdao Huanghai's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Huanghai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 62% of Qingdao Huanghai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Huanghai defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Huanghai beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.43 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.67 / defence 1.41, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Huanghai 27%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Qingdao Huanghai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Qingdao Huanghai 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 0.69 PPG, Qingdao Huanghai 0.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Huanghai win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.