Henan Jianye 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Super League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 47% versus Tianjin Teda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 20% | Tianjin Teda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.942 / defence 1.029 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.671 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Tianjin Teda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Henan Jianye games / 14 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 45% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Tianjin Teda 4.55. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 71% | Tianjin Teda 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 45% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Henan Jianye 1.35 / Tianjin Teda 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.942 / def 1.029 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.671 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Tianjin Teda xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 45% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.94) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
45%
2.20
32%
3.10
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.24
0.89
Tianjin Teda xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.89 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 4W 6D 5L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 2W 4D 9L from 15 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.71 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 71%, Tianjin Teda 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Henan Jianye and 29% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 29% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 29% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda finished level at 1-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.89 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.67 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 45% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 20%, Tianjin Teda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.