Chongqing Lifan 0-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chongqing Lifan face Dalian Aerbin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin meet at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (Relegation Round - 2). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time.
Current Form
Chongqing Lifan's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Chongqing Lifan have posted 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 home games — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chongqing Lifan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin's away record over their last 7 away games: 1W 0D 6L (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Chongqing Lifan, 0.70 for Dalian Aerbin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Chongqing Lifan — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Lifan 60% versus Dalian Aerbin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 60% | Dalian Aerbin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.53 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.292 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.845 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Dalian Aerbin's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Lifan's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Chongqing Lifan's last 14 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 14.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 33%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 2.59 | Draw 3.50 | Dalian Aerbin 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chongqing Lifan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chongqing Lifan's last 7 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 7 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chongqing Lifan 43% (last 7 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 57% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.53 / Dalian Aerbin 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / def 1.292 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.845 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Dalian Aerbin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Chongqing Lifan 0 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 39% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chongqing Lifan's attack rating (1.00) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.84x) against Chongqing Lifan's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Chongqing Lifan's last 14 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.50
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.94
1.40
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.40 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Chongqing Lifan have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 3W 3D 9L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 3W 1D 11L from 15 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Chongqing Lifan against 0.67 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chongqing Lifan have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 7 home games (3W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 6L from their last 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Lifan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.87 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chongqing Lifan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Chongqing Lifan (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 1D 11L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.43 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 28 December 2021, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Lifan
0
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 December 2021: Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Chongqing Lifan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 43%, Dalian Aerbin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Chongqing Lifan and 71% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 29% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 57% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Chongqing Lifan's matches and 71% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 71% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalian Aerbin defy the odds to beat Chongqing Lifan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Chongqing Lifan 0-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.53 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.40 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 33%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dalian Aerbin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 60%, Dalian Aerbin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Lifan 0.80 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.