Wuhan Zall 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Wuhan Zall versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Zall have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's home record at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Super League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Wuhan Zall against 1.30 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Wuhan Zall half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 69% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Zall 50% | Henan Jianye 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.14 xG and Henan Jianye 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.908 / defence 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.687 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Wuhan Zall games / 14 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Henan Jianye 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Zall 75% | Henan Jianye 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.14 / Henan Jianye 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.908 / def 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.687 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 36% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (0.91) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.69x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.02 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 8D 5L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Wuhan Zall against 1.19 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Zall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 8D 5L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 22 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 75%, Henan Jianye 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Wuhan Zall and 12% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 38%; Henan Jianye in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 25% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 12% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye finished level at 1-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.14 xG and Henan Jianye 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Henan Jianye attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 50%, Henan Jianye 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.