Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Wuhan Three Towns have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Henan Jianye.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Henan Jianye 5–2 Wuhan Three Towns — a Henan Jianye win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Wuhan Three Towns have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Wuhan Three Towns 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%). Note also that Wuhan Three Towns surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Henan Jianye recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.043 / defence 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.931 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.171. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 32 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.71 | Draw 4.62 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.04. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), but Henan Jianye carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Henan Jianye 32 games, Wuhan Three Towns 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.96 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.043 / def 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.931 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 59% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.04x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 32 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.62
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
35.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.05 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 16D 25L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.22 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won Henan Jianye 0-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 53% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 77% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.