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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Henan Jianye travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.848 / defence 0.896 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.539. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Dalian Zhixing games / 35 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Henan Jianye 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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