🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SHANGHAI SIPG — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–5 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

It is worth noting that SHANGHAI SIPG have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and SHANGHAI SIPG 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.955 / defence 0.922 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.154 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.494. Data: 36 Tianjin Teda games / 35 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights