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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to Longquanyi Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L at Longquanyi Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sichuan Jiuniu lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Henan Jianye 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Henan Jianye 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.46 xG and Henan Jianye 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.039 / defence 1.295 | Henan Jianye attack 0.762 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.516. Data: 34 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 34 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Henan Jianye 40%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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