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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Qingdao Jonoon.

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Full Analysis

Shanghai Stadium plays host to Shanghai Shenhua versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 1.50 PPG lead over Qingdao Jonoon (2.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across 4 previous meetings, Shanghai Shenhua are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 50% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.09 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.248 / defence 0.966 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.623 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.527. Data: 36 Shanghai Shenhua games / 36 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 63% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 14%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%.

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