Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 2W 3D 5L at Changchun Sports Center Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Changchun Yatai have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Changchun Yatai register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 62% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 2.56 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.063 / defence 0.993 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.806 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.320. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Changchun Yatai games / 50 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 69% | Draw 18% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 69% | Draw 18% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Changchun Yatai 2.56 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.063 / def 0.993 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.806 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 69% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (5 meetings): Changchun Yatai 3W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.06) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.67
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.62
1.06
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
8%
12.97
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
1%
99.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.06 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 15D 21L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 0.96 PPG from 50 outings (12W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.14 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.00 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 12D 26L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.33 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 67%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Changchun Yatai and 67% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 2.56 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.06 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 69% | Draw 18% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.14 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.