Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–0 Meizhou Kejia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Meizhou Kejia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.907 / defence 1.287 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.909 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.308. Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 50 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 50.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.31 | Draw 4.20 | Meizhou Kejia 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 / Meizhou Kejia 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.907 / def 1.287 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.909 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Meizhou Kejia xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Jonoon 4 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 43% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.91x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.91x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 50 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.20
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.31
1.53
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.53 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 12W 11D 27L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 23L across 50 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.02 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 10W 5D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.16 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 12W 11D 27L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 12W 15D 23L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.46 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 October 2025: Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Meizhou Kejia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Qingdao Jonoon and 62% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 29% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 58% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 62% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 67% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Meizhou Kejia 4-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.53 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Meizhou Kejia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.