Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 3D 5L at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sichuan Jiuniu lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Changchun Yatai 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 53% | Changchun Yatai 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.34 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.654 / defence 1.367 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.133 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.335. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 49 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 24% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 53%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Changchun Yatai 1.89. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 24% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.34 / Changchun Yatai 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.654 / def 1.367 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.133 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Changchun Yatai xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 24% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.13x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.35
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.41
2.07
Changchun Yatai xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
3%
33.38
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.07 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 4W 6D 9L from 19 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 9L across 19 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 0.95 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.47 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 0.67 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 56%, Changchun Yatai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 67% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 67% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.34 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.07 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.65 / defence 1.37 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.13 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 24% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 53%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 53%, Changchun Yatai 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.95 PPG, Changchun Yatai 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.