Chengdu Better City 4-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Chengdu Better City's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 55% versus Changchun Yatai 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 59% | Changchun Yatai 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.81 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.331 / defence 0.792 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.051 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.332. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Chengdu Better City games / 51 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 73% | Draw 15% | Changchun Yatai 12%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | Changchun Yatai 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 40% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 73% | Draw 15% | Changchun Yatai 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 63% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.81 / Changchun Yatai 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.331 / def 0.792 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.051 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai?
Chengdu Better City 4 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 73% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 2W | Draws 2 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.33) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.05x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
73%
1.38
15%
6.52
12%
8.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.92
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
8.25
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
6%
16.61
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
1%
137.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.11 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 51 games, going 29W 11D 11L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (15W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 17W 4D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 29W 11D 11L in their last 51 games (1.92 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.20 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Chengdu Better City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Chengdu Better City 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 48%, Changchun Yatai 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Chengdu Better City and 56% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 60% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 56% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Changchun Yatai 4-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.81 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.33 / defence 0.79 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 73% | Draw 15% | Changchun Yatai 12%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 59%, Changchun Yatai 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.