Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 68% versus Shanghai Shenhua 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.57 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.639 / defence 0.959 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.243 / defence 0.506. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.319. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.506 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Wuhan Three Towns games / 50 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 62%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 7.69 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Wuhan Three Towns's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.57 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.639 / def 0.959 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.243 / def 0.506 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Shanghai Shenhua xG
35%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 29 July 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 13% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.64x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.51x — combine the two and it projects 0.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.24x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (14.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
13%
7.74
25%
3.94
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.5%
Away win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.14
1.57
Shanghai Shenhua xG
7.74
13%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
57%
1.76
Win to Nil
3%
37.28
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 18.5 | 14.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.57 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 14D 16L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 31W 11D 8L from 50 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Three Towns.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 5D 5L from 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.66 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.36 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 4-1 on 9 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Shanghai Shenhua 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 48%; Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.57 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.64 / defence 0.96 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.24 / defence 0.51, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 62%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 54%, Shanghai Shenhua 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.