Tianjin Teda 2-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 1W 6D 3L at TEDA Football Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Tianjin Teda, 0.80 for Qingdao Youth Island — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Tianjin Teda 1W, Qingdao Youth Island 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 60% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.02 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.834 / defence 0.939 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.755 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.307. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Tianjin Teda games / 20 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 62% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 16%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 62% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Tianjin Teda 2.02 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.834 / def 0.939 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.755 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Qingdao Youth Island xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 62% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.76x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.61
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.95
0.93
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
47.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.93 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 11L across 20 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 0.85 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 1W 5D 3L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.25 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.89 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 44%, Qingdao Youth Island 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tianjin Teda) and 67% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 44% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Qingdao Youth Island 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.02 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 62% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 16%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 60%, Qingdao Youth Island 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.