Beijing Guoan 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shanghai Shenhua at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Workers' Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shanghai Shenhua — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 61% versus Shanghai Shenhua 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / defence 0.869 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.271 / defence 0.469. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.320. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.469 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Beijing Guoan games / 51 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.17. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Beijing Guoan dominate the H2H record, yet Shanghai Shenhua are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.04 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / def 0.869 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.271 / def 0.469 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 27% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
27%
3.75
27%
3.71
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.50
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.10
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.46 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 13D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 32W 11D 8L from 51 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.73 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 5D 5L from 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 32W 11D 8L in their last 51 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.00 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 64%, Shanghai Shenhua 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beijing Guoan) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 0.87 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.27 / defence 0.47, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.