Hangzhou Greentown 4-3 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.40 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 63% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Qingdao Jonoon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.272 / defence 0.997 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.614 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.320. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Hangzhou Greentown games / 51 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 72% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Qingdao Jonoon 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 72% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.272 / def 0.997 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.614 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Qingdao Jonoon xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown 4 - 3 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 72% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.27) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.71
11%
9.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.19
0.81
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.71
18%
Draw
9.49
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
9%
10.82
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
102.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.81 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 25W 8D 18L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 13W 11D 27L from 51 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (16W 3D 7L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 6D 18L from 26 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 25W 8D 18L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 11D 27L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.96 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 58%, Qingdao Jonoon 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 31% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 31% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 31% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Jonoon 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-3 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.27 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.61 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 72% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Qingdao Jonoon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.