Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye meet at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 1W 2D 7L at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Henan Jianye are 1.20 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 0 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nantong Zhiyun half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 59% versus Henan Jianye 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 39% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG and Henan Jianye 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.549 / defence 1.093 | Henan Jianye attack 0.994 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.316. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.549 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Nantong Zhiyun games / 51 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 49%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.04. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 40% | Henan Jianye 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 / Henan Jianye 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.549 / def 1.093 | Henan Jianye attack 0.994 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Henan Jianye xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 23% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 1W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.99x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
23%
4.33
28%
3.63
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.32
1.43
Henan Jianye xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.43 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 7W 15D 29L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 16W 15D 20L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.50 PPG from 24 outings (2W 6D 16L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.27 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 15D 29L in their last 51 games (0.71 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 16W 15D 20L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.50 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
3
Draws
0
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 46%, Henan Jianye 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 54% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 46% of games; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 54% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 54% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG and Henan Jianye 1.43 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.55 / defence 1.09 against Henan Jianye attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 23% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 49%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 39%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.