Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2W 2D 6L at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Wuhan Three Towns) versus 1.50 (Sichuan Jiuniu). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 67% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Sichuan Jiuniu 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.611 / defence 0.985 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.757 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.332. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Wuhan Three Towns games / 21 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 36% | Draw 31% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 36% | Draw 31% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.611 / def 0.985 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.757 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 36% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 0W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.61x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.22
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.05
0.99
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.99 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 9L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 1.10 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 2W 2D 6L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 0.80 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Sichuan Jiuniu 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 40% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 40% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 40% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.99 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.61 / defence 0.98 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 36% | Draw 31% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Sichuan Jiuniu 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.10 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.