Sport Recife 2-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Sport Recife take on Atletico Goianiense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Atletico Goianiense travel to Itaipava Arena Pernambuco to take on Sport Recife. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sport Recife have posted 2W 4D 4L at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sport Recife) versus 1.30 (Atletico Goianiense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sport Recife, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sport Recife trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 63% of games.
Atletico Goianiense trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 22% | Atletico Goianiense 41%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 26% | Atletico Goianiense 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.59 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.607 / defence 0.878 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.869 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 0.996. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Sport Recife games / 27 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 24% | Draw 42% | Atletico Goianiense 34%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.17 | Draw 2.38 | Atletico Goianiense 2.94. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.35. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.35 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 16% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 25% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 20% | Atletico Goianiense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 24% | Draw 42% | Atletico Goianiense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Sport Recife 0.59 / Atletico Goianiense 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.607 / def 0.878 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.869 / def 1.038 | league avg home 0.939 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Atletico Goianiense xG
25%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense?
Sport Recife 2 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 24% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 34% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.61x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 27.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.16
42%
2.40
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.35
0.76
Atletico Goianiense xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
3.97
75%
BTTS No
1.34
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.9 | 19.7 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.4%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.76 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 1.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 6W 8D 13L from 27 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 8L across 27 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Goianiense by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.48 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.89 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Atletico Goianiense's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.08 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sport Recife
1
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Sport Recife 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 15% BTTS, Atletico Goianiense 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Sport Recife and 46% for Atletico Goianiense.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 46%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 69% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 46% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Sport Recife's recent games and 46% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sport Recife cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico Goianiense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Atletico Goianiense 2-0 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.59 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.76 xG, a combined 1.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.61 / defence 0.88 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 24% | Draw 42% | Atletico Goianiense 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 26%, Atletico Goianiense 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Goianiense arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.