Fluminense 1-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fluminense at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Sport Recife at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sport Recife have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fluminense at 1.40 PPG versus Sport Recife's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fluminense, 0 for Sport Recife and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fluminense 45% | Sport Recife 21%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 31% | Sport Recife 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.22 xG and Sport Recife 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.980 / defence 1.103 | Sport Recife attack 0.623 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 0.953. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Fluminense games / 30 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 32% | Sport Recife 19%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Sport Recife 5.26. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Sport Recife 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 32% | Sport Recife 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Fluminense 1.22 / Sport Recife 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.980 / def 1.103 | Sport Recife attack 0.623 / def 1.332 | league avg home 0.937 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Sport Recife xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Sport Recife kick off?
Fluminense vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Fluminense vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Sport Recife part of?
Fluminense vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 49% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Fluminense and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Sport Recife in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.98) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.13
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.88
0.66
Sport Recife xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
6%
17.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.66 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fluminense's recent record stands at 10W 9D 10L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 14L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.34 PPG, Sport Recife on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.52 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 21%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Sport Recife
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Sport Recife away?
Fluminense's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.64 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2025, when Sport Recife 2-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Sport Recife 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Fluminense and 36% for Sport Recife.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fluminense have failed to score in 29% of games; Sport Recife in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 29% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fluminense's recent games and 36% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Sport Recife 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.22 xG and Sport Recife 0.66 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Sport Recife attack 0.62 / defence 1.33, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 49% | Draw 32% | Sport Recife 19%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 31%, Sport Recife 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Sport Recife's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.34 PPG, Sport Recife 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.