Sport Recife 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sport Recife and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.90 xG and Cuiaba 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.786 / defence 1.016 | Cuiaba attack 0.780 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 0.974 / away 1.027. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Sport Recife games / 4 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 31%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Cuiaba 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sport Recife if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 28 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Sport Recife 0.90 / Cuiaba 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.786 / def 1.016 | Cuiaba attack 0.780 / def 1.177 | league avg home 0.974 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Cuiaba kick off?
Sport Recife vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 28 June 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Sport Recife vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Cuiaba part of?
Sport Recife vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 35% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sport Recife and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Cuiaba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.79x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.78x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 6/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.96
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.71
0.81
Cuiaba xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.81 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Cuiaba?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2021, when Cuiaba 1-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife and Cuiaba finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.90 xG and Cuiaba 0.81 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 35% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 31%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.