Gremio 0-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.03 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.963 / defence 1.150 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.085 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.161. Data: 1 Gremio games / 2 Atletico Paranaense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 47%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Paranaense 2.13. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Gremio 1.03 / Atletico Paranaense 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.963 / def 1.150 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.085 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Atletico Paranaense xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
Gremio 0 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 27% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gremio and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Atletico Paranaense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.96) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.08x) against Gremio's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
27%
3.72
26%
3.79
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.48
1.45
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gremio and 1.45 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.03 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.45 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 27% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 47%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.