Juventude 0-3 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Alfredo Jaconi plays host to Juventude versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 6 June 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.34 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.127. Data: 1 Juventude games / 1 Atletico Paranaense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juventude 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 31%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Paranaense 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Juventude 1.34 / Atletico Paranaense 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Juventude (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Atletico Paranaense xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense?
Juventude 0 - 3 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 42% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Atletico Paranaense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.96x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.85x) against Juventude's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Juventude and 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 0-3 on 6 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
1
Draws
4
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Paranaense?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Atletico Paranaense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Juventude 0-3 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.34 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 31%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.