Palmeiras 3-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Chapecoense-sc at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 June 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.127. Data: 1 Palmeiras games / 1 Chapecoense-sc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 31%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Chapecoense-sc 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Palmeiras 1.34 / Chapecoense-sc 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Chapecoense-sc xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc?
Palmeiras 3 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 42% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.10 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Chapecoense-sc specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Chapecoense-sc?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 31%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.