Chapecoense-sc 0-3 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino meet at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.14 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | RB Bragantino attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.003. Data: 0 Chapecoense-sc games / 0 RB Bragantino games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 39% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 31%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chapecoense-sc are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 39% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.14 / RB Bragantino 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | RB Bragantino attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 3 RB Bragantino.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 39% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.85) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.85x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.37
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.12
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 0.98 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Bragantino won 0-3 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-2 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Chapecoense-sc 0-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.14 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.1 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against RB Bragantino attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 39% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 31%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.