Gremio 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Flamengo at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio at Arena do Grêmio this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gremio, 0 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Gremio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Flamengo in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 39% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 39% | Flamengo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.25 xG and Flamengo 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.129 / defence 1.283 | Flamengo attack 1.589 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.925. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.589 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Gremio games / 33 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 52%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Flamengo 1.92. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Gremio 1.25 / Flamengo 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.129 / def 1.283 | Flamengo attack 1.589 / def 1.152 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Flamengo xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Flamengo kick off?
Gremio vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Gremio vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Flamengo part of?
Gremio vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 25% chance of winning, Flamengo a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gremio and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 0W.
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gremio's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
25%
3.96
23%
4.41
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.14
1.89
Flamengo xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
26.08
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Gremio and 1.89 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 5D 18L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 20W 6D 7L from 33 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 5D 3L from 16 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.94 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 10W 5D 18L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 20W 6D 7L in their last 33 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.44 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Gremio or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Flamengo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Gremio
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 44%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gremio) and 69% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Flamengo in 31%; Gremio have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gremio's recent matches and 62% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Gremio's matches and 69% of Flamengo's.
Do Gremio and Flamengo tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 2, as Gremio and Flamengo drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.25 xG and Flamengo 1.89 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.13 / defence 1.28 against Flamengo attack 1.59 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 25% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 52%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 39%, Flamengo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.