Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Cuiaba at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 June 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.29 xG and Cuiaba 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | Cuiaba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.235. Data: 1 Fluminense games / 1 Cuiaba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 38% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 35%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 38% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Fluminense 1.29 / Cuiaba 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | Cuiaba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cuiaba xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fluminense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What competition is Fluminense vs Cuiaba part of?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 38% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fluminense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.71
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Cuiaba xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.21 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Cuiaba runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Fluminense
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.29 xG and Cuiaba 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Cuiaba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 38% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 35%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.