Mirassol 2-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mirassol at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mirassol face Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Santos meet at José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Current Form
Mirassol's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Mirassol's last 10 home games and Santos's last 10 away games) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Santos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mirassol, 0 for Santos and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Nov 2025, ended Mirassol 1–1 Santos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Santos — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.23 xG and Santos 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.183 / defence 1.022 | Santos attack 1.043 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.146. Santos's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mirassol's projected output up. Data: built from Mirassol's last 41 games and Santos's last 42.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 60% | Draw 20% | Santos 20%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.66 | Draw 5.05 | Santos 4.98. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mirassol's last 10 home games and Santos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mirassol 60% (last 10 home games) | Santos 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 60% | Draw 20% | Santos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Mirassol 2.23 / Santos 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.183 / def 1.022 | Santos attack 1.043 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Santos xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mirassol vs Santos FAQs
What time does Mirassol vs Santos kick off?
Mirassol vs Santos kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Santos?
Mirassol 2 - 2 Santos.
Where is Mirassol vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Santos part of?
Mirassol vs Santos is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 60% chance of winning, Santos a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mirassol and Santos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mirassol vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.18) and Santos's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.04x) against Mirassol's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Mirassol's last 41 games and Santos's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
60%
1.66
20%
5.05
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.45
1.22
Santos xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
2%
46.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mirassol vs Santos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.22 for Santos, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 13D 7L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Santos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mirassol's home form reads 12W 7D 0L across their last 19 home games, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 19 away games (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
Mirassol (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mirassol
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Mirassol vs Santos Form FAQs
What form are Mirassol and Santos in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Santos away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Mirassol and Santos, the earliest from July 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won Mirassol 3-0 Santos on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mirassol
3
Draws
0
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Mirassol vs Santos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Santos?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mirassol have won 1, Santos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Santos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Santos 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Santos?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Santos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Mirassol and 58% for Santos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Santos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mirassol vs Santos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mirassol and Santos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 53% of Santos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mirassol and Santos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Mirassol's matches and 58% of Santos's.
Do Mirassol and Santos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Mirassol's recent matches and 63% of Santos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Santos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 5, as Mirassol and Santos drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.23 xG and Santos 1.22 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.02 against Santos attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 60% | Draw 20% | Santos 20%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Santos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.