Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and RB Bragantino meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio at Arena do Grêmio this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, RB Bragantino have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Gremio's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
It is worth noting that RB Bragantino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus RB Bragantino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 43% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 2.10 xG and RB Bragantino 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.288 / defence 1.129 | RB Bragantino attack 0.819 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.129. Gremio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Gremio games / 42 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 62% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 18%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | RB Bragantino 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 50% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 62% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 2.10 / RB Bragantino 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.288 / def 1.129 | RB Bragantino attack 0.819 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Gremio (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.04
RB Bragantino xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Gremio 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Gremio vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs RB Bragantino part of?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 62% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
Record (8 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 3 | RB Bragantino 4W.
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.29) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.82x) against Gremio's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.91
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.15
1.04
RB Bragantino xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
45.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gremio and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Gremio and 1.04 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 25W 19D 32L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gremio against 1.21 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (18W 7D 13L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 9D 22L from 38 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 61%.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 games (1.24 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or RB Bragantino away?
Gremio's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.61 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gremio
4
Draws
5
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 50%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gremio) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 26% of games; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gremio's games and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gremio's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 2.10 xG and RB Bragantino 1.04 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.29 / defence 1.13 against RB Bragantino attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 62% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 18%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 43%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.24 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.