Remo 0-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Mangueirão to face Remo in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.26 xG and Fluminense 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.901 / defence 1.211 | Fluminense attack 0.944 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.140. Data: 4 Remo games / 42 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Mar 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Remo 1.26 / Fluminense 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.901 / def 1.211 | Fluminense attack 0.944 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Fluminense xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Fluminense kick off?
Remo vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 12 March 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Fluminense?
Remo 0 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Remo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Fluminense part of?
Remo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 36% chance of winning, Fluminense a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Remo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Remo and Fluminense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fluminense away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Remo's attack at 0.90x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.94x) against Remo's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.76
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Remo xG
Total xG
2.56
1.30
Fluminense xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Remo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Remo and 1.30 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since March 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
0
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Fluminense?
From 2 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Fluminense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fluminense 2-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Remo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Remo 0-2 at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.26 xG and Fluminense 1.30 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Remo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 36% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.