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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Mirassol and Santos meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 00:30 UTC.

Current Form

Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.

Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Santos's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Santos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mirassol, 0 for Santos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Mirassol — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Santos — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Santos 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.23 xG and Santos 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.183 / defence 1.022 | Santos attack 1.043 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.146. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Mirassol games / 42 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 60% | Draw 20% | Santos 20%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Santos 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 60% | Santos 60% BTTS from recent games.

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