Gremio 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 1W 4D 2L from 7 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Bahia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Gremio, 0.70 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 33% versus Bahia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 27% | Bahia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.98 xG and Bahia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.776 / defence 1.032 | Bahia attack 0.938 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 0.892 / away 1.076. Gremio's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Gremio games / 16 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Bahia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 43% | Bahia 57%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gremio 0.98 / Bahia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.776 / def 1.032 | Bahia attack 0.938 / def 1.422 | league avg home 0.892 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bahia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bahia xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Gremio vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 33% chance of winning, Bahia a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.94x) against Gremio's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.27
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.03
1.04
Bahia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gremio and 1.04 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Gremio have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 3W 4D 8L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Gremio against 1.00 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.13 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Bahia have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.00 PPG; Bahia away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 43%, Bahia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Gremio) and 57% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 57% of games; Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gremio's recent matches and 57% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Gremio's recent games and 57% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gremio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Bahia 2-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.98 xG and Bahia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Bahia attack 0.94 / defence 1.42, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 27%, Bahia 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 0.87 PPG, Bahia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.