Bahia 1-2 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Roberto Santos plays host to Bahia versus Atletico Goianiense in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 3W 1D 4L at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Goianiense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Bahia, 1.00 for Atletico Goianiense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 40% versus Atletico Goianiense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 53% | Atletico Goianiense 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 0.94 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.928 / defence 1.434 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.775 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 0.890 / away 1.074. Data: 15 Bahia games / 15 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 29% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 42%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Goianiense 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Goianiense as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 25% | Atletico Goianiense 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 29% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Bahia 0.94 / Atletico Goianiense 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.928 / def 1.434 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.775 / def 1.140 | league avg home 0.890 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atletico Goianiense xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Bahia 1 - 2 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 29% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bahia and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Goianiense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Atletico Goianiense in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bahia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.78x) against Bahia's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
29%
3.46
29%
3.41
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.13
1.19
Atletico Goianiense xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bahia and 1.19 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Goianiense sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Bahia against 1.33 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bahia's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Goianiense have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Atletico Goianiense's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.25 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Bahia or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
2
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Goianiense?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Bahia 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 25%, Atletico Goianiense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 38% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 50%; Bahia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Bahia's recent matches and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 38% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Goianiense edge out Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Bahia 1-2 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.94 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.19 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.93 / defence 1.43 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 29% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 42%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 53%, Atletico Goianiense 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.20 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Goianiense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.