Palmeiras 0-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 1L across 8 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cuiaba have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 5D 1L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Palmeiras's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Cuiaba 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 56% | Cuiaba 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.41 xG and Cuiaba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.371 / defence 1.319 | Cuiaba attack 0.778 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 0.898 / away 1.065. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Palmeiras games / 16 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 44% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 29%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 75% | Cuiaba 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 44% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Palmeiras 1.41 / Cuiaba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.371 / def 1.319 | Cuiaba attack 0.778 / def 1.141 | league avg home 0.898 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cuiaba xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Palmeiras 0 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba part of?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 44% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palmeiras and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.78x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.76
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.50
1.09
Cuiaba xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.09 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 16 games, going 10W 2D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (3W 8D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (1W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.94 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 3W 8D 5L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cuiaba away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.29 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 71%, Cuiaba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palmeiras) and 29% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 43%; Cuiaba in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Cuiaba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Palmeiras's games and 43% of Cuiaba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palmeiras's recent games and 29% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.41 xG and Cuiaba 1.09 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cuiaba outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.37 / defence 1.32 against Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 44% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 29%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 56%, Cuiaba 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Cuiaba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.