Ceara 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Flamengo meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ceara have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Ceara have gone 5W 2D 1L this season (8 games, 2.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 3W 0D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 50% versus Flamengo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 36% | Flamengo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.177 / defence 1.007 | Flamengo attack 1.287 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.073. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Ceara games / 14 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 29% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 44%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 62% | Flamengo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 29% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ceara 1.08 / Flamengo 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.177 / def 1.007 | Flamengo attack 1.287 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Flamengo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Flamengo kick off?
Ceara vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Flamengo?
Ceara 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Ceara vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Flamengo part of?
Ceara vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 29% chance of winning, Flamengo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ceara and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Flamengo in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ceara's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.29x) against Ceara's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 16/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.74
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.47
1.39
Flamengo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ceara and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ceara and 1.39 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 4W 8D 2L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 9W 0D 5L from 14 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ceara.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ceara have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ceara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.93 scored and 1.07 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Ceara's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Flamengo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 4W 8D 2L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 9W 0D 5L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Flamengo away?
Ceara's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 2.20 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Ceara or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Flamengo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ceara
4
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Flamengo?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2025, when Flamengo 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ceara see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 40%, Flamengo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Ceara) and 60% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Flamengo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ceara's recent matches and 40% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ceara's recent games and 60% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Flamengo tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 17, as Ceara and Flamengo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 29% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 44%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 36%, Flamengo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.