Juventude 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortaleza EC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fortaleza EC are 0.60 PPG clear of Juventude in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 33% versus Fortaleza EC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 33% | Fortaleza EC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.00 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.888 / defence 1.143 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.941 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.898 / away 1.066. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Juventude games / 16 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 31% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 39%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 25% | Fortaleza EC 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 31% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventude 1.00 / Fortaleza EC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.888 / def 1.143 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.941 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.898 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Juventude vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Juventude 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Juventude vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 31% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Fortaleza EC in?
Juventude (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.89) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.94x) against Juventude's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.39
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Juventude and 1.15 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 3L across 15 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Juventude's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.86 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Juventude or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortaleza EC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 5-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Juventude
3
Draws
5
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Juventude 1-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 29%, Fortaleza EC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Juventude) and 57% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 43%; Fortaleza EC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Juventude's recent matches and 57% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Juventude's recent games and 57% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Juventude and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Fortaleza EC finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.00 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 31% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 39%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 33%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.