Gremio 0-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Gremio take on Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Corinthians at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 2W 4D 2L at Arena do Grêmio — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Corinthians — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's away record: 4W 4D 1L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gremio at 1.40 PPG versus Corinthians's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 31% versus Corinthians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 25% | Corinthians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.62 xG and Corinthians 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.872 / defence 0.943 | Corinthians attack 0.687 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.105. Data: 16 Gremio games / 17 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 40% | Corinthians 33%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.70 | Draw 2.50 | Corinthians 3.03. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 24% | Total xG 1.33. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.33 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 76% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 24%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 15% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 24% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 38% | Corinthians 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 40% | Corinthians 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 24% | xG Gremio 0.62 / Corinthians 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.872 / def 0.943 | Corinthians attack 0.687 / def 0.821 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Corinthians xG
24%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Corinthians kick off?
Gremio vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Gremio 0 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Gremio vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Corinthians part of?
Gremio vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 27% chance of winning, Corinthians a 33% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 24% probability that both Gremio and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Corinthians (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.87) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.66
40%
2.53
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.33
0.71
Corinthians xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
24%
BTTS Yes
4.22
76%
BTTS No
1.31
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.3 | 18.8 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Gremio and 0.71 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gremio's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.00 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Corinthians away?
Corinthians's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.25 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gremio or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Corinthians in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Corinthians runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Corinthians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gremio
4
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Corinthians have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gremio 1-3 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 38%, Corinthians 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Gremio and 12% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Corinthians in 50%; Gremio have failed to score in 50% of games; Corinthians in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gremio's recent matches and 38% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gremio's recent games and 12% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.62 xG and Corinthians 0.71 xG, a combined 1.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Corinthians attack 0.69 / defence 0.82, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 27% | Draw 40% | Corinthians 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 39% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 24% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Corinthians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.