Internacional 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Internacional welcome Gremio to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional's home record at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Internacional are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Internacional, 0 for Gremio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gremio trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 46% versus Gremio 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 36% | Gremio 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.86 xG and Gremio 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.399 / defence 1.258 | Gremio attack 0.687 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 0.941 / away 0.959. Internacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Internacional games / 28 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 24% | Gremio 15%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Gremio 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 50% | Gremio 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 24% | Gremio 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Internacional 1.86 / Gremio 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.399 / def 1.258 | Gremio attack 0.687 / def 1.414 | league avg home 0.941 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Internacional (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Gremio xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Gremio kick off?
Internacional vs Gremio kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Internacional 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Internacional vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Gremio part of?
Internacional vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 61% chance of winning, Gremio a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Internacional and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Internacional and Gremio in?
Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Gremio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.40x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.21
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.69
0.83
Gremio xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
41.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Internacional and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Internacional and 0.83 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 10D 8L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 0.93 PPG from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Internacional carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Internacional's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (3W 0D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.89 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Gremio in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 10W 10D 8L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Gremio have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Gremio away?
Internacional's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.69 PPG; Gremio away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Internacional or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gremio in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Internacional's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Internacional
3
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Gremio have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Internacional 0-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Gremio?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 54%, Gremio 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Internacional and 23% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gremio in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Internacional's recent matches and 23% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Internacional's recent games and 23% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Gremio tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gremio in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.86 xG and Gremio 0.83 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Internacional fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gremio landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.40 / defence 1.26 against Gremio attack 0.69 / defence 1.41, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 61% | Draw 24% | Gremio 15%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 36%, Gremio 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.