Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Antônio Accioly to face Atletico Goianiense in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Goianiense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventude have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Juventude's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico Goianiense lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Juventude — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 36% versus Juventude 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 27% | Juventude 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.99 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.738 / defence 1.044 | Juventude attack 0.905 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.924. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Atletico Goianiense games / 33 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 32% | Juventude 31%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Juventude 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Goianiense as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Juventude 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 32% | Juventude 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.99 / Juventude 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.738 / def 1.044 | Juventude attack 0.905 / def 1.396 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.924 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Juventude xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 37% chance of winning, Juventude a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Juventude in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.74x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.91x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.12
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.87
0.87
Juventude xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.87 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 9W 13D 11L from 33 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 12L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Atletico Goianiense against 1.18 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 4W 9D 3L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 2W 6D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.97 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Juventude in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 13D 11L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Juventude have gone 9W 12D 12L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Juventude away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.31 PPG; Juventude away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Juventude in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Atletico Goianiense
3
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, Juventude have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Juventude?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 38%, Juventude 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Atletico Goianiense and 38% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 44% of games; Juventude in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 62% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 38% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Atletico Goianiense and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 30, as Atletico Goianiense and Juventude drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.99 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against Juventude attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 32% | Juventude 31%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 27%, Juventude 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.21 PPG, Juventude 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.