Sport Recife 2-3 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sport Recife take on America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Itaipava Arena Pernambuco plays host to Sport Recife versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Thursday 11 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sport Recife have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Sport Recife have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
America Mineiro's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sport Recife, 1.60 for America Mineiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sport Recife 1W, America Mineiro 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Sport Recife winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 63% of games.
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 20% | America Mineiro 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 23% | America Mineiro 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.77 xG and America Mineiro 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.696 / defence 0.878 | America Mineiro attack 0.918 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.918. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Sport Recife games / 30 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 33% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 31%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | America Mineiro 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 10% | America Mineiro 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 33% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Sport Recife 0.77 / America Mineiro 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.696 / def 0.878 | America Mineiro attack 0.918 / def 1.168 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.74
America Mineiro xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs America Mineiro kick off?
Sport Recife vs America Mineiro kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 11 November 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?
Sport Recife 2 - 3 America Mineiro.
Where is Sport Recife vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs America Mineiro part of?
Sport Recife vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 33% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Sport Recife and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and America Mineiro in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.92x) against Sport Recife's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.08
37%
2.72
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.51
0.74
America Mineiro xG
3.08
33%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.1 | 16.3 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.74 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Sport Recife have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 8D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
America Mineiro's form line: 9W 11D 10L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Sport Recife against 1.27 for America Mineiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sport Recife have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sport Recife are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.97 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or America Mineiro away?
Sport Recife's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.13 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sport Recife
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and America Mineiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 1, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2021, when Sport Recife 2-3 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 13% (Sport Recife) and 53% (America Mineiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Sport Recife and 27% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 67% of games; America Mineiro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 13% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 53% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Sport Recife's recent games and 27% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Sport Recife 2-3 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.77 xG and America Mineiro 0.74 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. America Mineiro outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.70 / defence 0.88 against America Mineiro attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 33% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual America Mineiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 23%, America Mineiro 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.97 PPG, America Mineiro 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.