Bahia 1-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sao Paulo make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sao Paulo (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bahia, 1.50 for Sao Paulo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bahia 0W, Sao Paulo 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Sao Paulo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sao Paulo — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 38% versus Sao Paulo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 41% | Sao Paulo 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.20 xG and Sao Paulo 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.083 / defence 1.231 | Sao Paulo attack 0.720 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 0.956. Sao Paulo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Bahia games / 29 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 25%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Sao Paulo 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 50% | Sao Paulo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Bahia 1.20 / Sao Paulo 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.083 / def 1.231 | Sao Paulo attack 0.720 / def 1.207 | league avg home 0.919 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Bahia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sao Paulo xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 21:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia 1 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Bahia vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Sao Paulo part of?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bahia and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.72x) against Bahia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.05
0.85
Sao Paulo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bahia and 0.85 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 9D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (8W 13D 8L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Bahia against 1.28 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.79 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 8W 13D 8L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Sao Paulo away?
Bahia's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.36 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bahia or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 0-3 on 6 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bahia
2
Draws
5
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 43%, Sao Paulo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 21% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 36% of games; Sao Paulo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bahia's recent matches and 43% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 21% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Sao Paulo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Sao Paulo 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.20 xG and Sao Paulo 0.85 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.08 / defence 1.23 against Sao Paulo attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 44% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 25%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 41%, Sao Paulo 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.14 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.