Fluminense 2-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Avai travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.61 xG and Avai 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.109 / defence 1.268 | Avai attack 0.798 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 0.992. Data: 50 Fluminense games / 12 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 51% | Draw 27% | Avai 23%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Avai 4.35. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 51% | Draw 27% | Avai 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Fluminense 1.61 / Avai 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.109 / def 1.268 | Avai attack 0.798 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.277 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Avai xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Avai kick off?
Fluminense vs Avai kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Avai?
Fluminense 2 - 0 Avai.
Where is Fluminense vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Avai part of?
Fluminense vs Avai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 51% chance of winning, Avai a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fluminense and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Avai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Avai in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fluminense home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.11x the league average against Avai's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
51%
1.98
27%
3.74
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.61
1.00
Avai xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Avai, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Avai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Avai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Avai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fluminense
0
Draws
0
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Avai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Avai 0-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Avai?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Avai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Avai 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.61 xG and Avai 1.00 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Avai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 1.27 against Avai attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 51% | Draw 27% | Avai 23%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.