Fortaleza EC 1-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Fortaleza EC take on America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Fortaleza EC welcome America Mineiro to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
America Mineiro — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, America Mineiro have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. America Mineiro's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fortaleza EC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortaleza EC, 1 for America Mineiro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with America Mineiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 40% versus America Mineiro 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 45% | America Mineiro 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and America Mineiro 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.650 / defence 0.968 | America Mineiro attack 0.809 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 0.978. Fortaleza EC's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Fortaleza EC games / 50 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 38% | America Mineiro 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | America Mineiro 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | America Mineiro 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 38% | America Mineiro 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.78 / America Mineiro 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.650 / def 0.968 | America Mineiro attack 0.809 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.261 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
America Mineiro xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro part of?
Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 31% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortaleza EC's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
38%
2.60
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.54
0.77
America Mineiro xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 16.4 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.0%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.77 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 7D 14L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (13W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.53 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (4W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or America Mineiro away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.95 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2021, when Fortaleza EC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, America Mineiro have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-2 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 32%, America Mineiro 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Fortaleza EC and 26% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 26% of games; America Mineiro in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 53% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 26% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out America Mineiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat America Mineiro 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and America Mineiro 0.77 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.65 / defence 0.97 against America Mineiro attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 38% | America Mineiro 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, America Mineiro 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG, America Mineiro 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.